Introduction: The Crisis in Kathmandu’s Public Transport System

Imagine spending hours stuck in traffic every day, crammed into a minibus so tightly that you can barely breathe. This is the daily reality for thousands of commuters in Kathmandu. This is largely due to the low passenger-carrying capacity of public vehicles, which cannot meet the demand of a city that has seen a 150% increase in urban population density since 2000. Of the 1.75 million registered vehicles in the valley, only about 3% are public vehicles. Among these, over 94% are low-occupancy vehicles, such as minibusses and microbuses, which carry an average of 15-20 passengers (JICA, 2017). While 28% of Kathmandu residents rely on formal or informal public transit, in a valley of three million people, this supply-demand gap is a major obstacle to achieving efficiency and passenger satisfaction. Poor management of public transport in Kathmandu Valley has led to several challenges, including traffic congestion, significant travel times, and skyrocketing pollution levels. Kathmandu also has one of the lowest built-up areas per capita among comparable cities, suggesting that urban land is relatively scarce per individual.

While private vehicles and ride-sharing apps have temporarily benefited people compared to commuting via public transport, any long-term increase in the use of such small-occupancy vehicles would be disastrous for Kathmandu's limited, congested road network. With almost 29% of Nepal’s total urban population residing inside Kathmandu Valley, rapidly increasing urban migration, and aspirations to own private vehicles, it is clear: Kathmandu’s public transport system is broken, and its complete revamp is no longer an option—it is a necessity.

Here, we present a case for mass rapid transit (MRT) a system widely acclaimed in other populous cities around the world, such as Delhi, Tokyo, Dubai, and New York. While there are significant challenges, such as limited roadside space and high investment costs, it’s worth experimenting around the largest canopy of Kathmandu’s road network, 27 Km Ring Road, which might be logistically and financially more feasible compared to other parts of the valley.

Fig. 1: Bus Rapid Transit System in Jakarta, Indonesia. (Source: IISD)

History of Public Transport: Nepal vs. Global Trends

Public transportation is a mobility system used by the public, run on public infrastructure, and regulated by public bodies on a fixed route. This includes buses, tempos, and trains and excludes motorbikes, cars, taxis, and other ride-sharing apps. Public transport aims to optimize mobility in a reliable, convenient, safe, and least cost possible for the public.

While the first recorded public transportation started in Paris in 1662 as a horse-drawn carriage, to this day, public transportation has rapidly evolved with the use of modern technologies like high-speed trains and metro rails.

Fig. 2: Public Transport In Kathmandu timeline (Source: CEN)

In Nepal, public transportation began in 1959 when the Nepal Bus Service started its local operations between Kathmandu and Patan. Later, Sajha Yatayat and trolleybuses were introduced in the Kathmandu Valley during the 1960s and 1970s. However, due to various management issues and political interference, both services ceased operations by 2009. Although Sajha Yatayat was revived in 2013, the challenges faced by government-owned public transportation remain well-documented. With the rise of privatization in the early 2000s, the failures of government-run public transportation became more apparent. The lack of government regulation further fueled the growth of privatized transport, allowing monopolies and syndicates to dominate the sector.

Importance of Public Transport

Fig. 3: Importance of public transport. (Source: Cycling Promotion Fund - Australia)

A good public transport system does not just carry people; it carries the country’s economy. Ensuring ideal mass mobility enhances economic activities, increasing productivity gains. While developing a good transport system plays an important role in reducing negative externalities, it also adds up to positive ones. It aids in improving indicators like the happiness index by making people happy and healthy.

Its other significance is the considerable scaling down of long-term infrastructure development and maintenance costs. An affordable public transportation system is for everyone, especially for the lower-class population, which is beneficial for achieving class equality at large. Thus, we cannot deny the importance of public transport, as the marginal benefit-cost ratio of 100 people using public transport is much higher than that of using personal vehicles.

Problem Identification: Supply-Demand Imbalance in Kathmandu’s Public Transport

Kathmandu Valley’s public transport predominantly consists of buses, minibuses, microbuses, and tempos - with 94% of the fleet made up of minibuses and microbuses. These small vehicles, with a passenger capacity of only 10-20 people, quickly become overcrowded, particularly during peak hours. For a population of over three million, relying on approximately 1,500 kilometers of road, these vehicles are the primary means of transport. However, they are far from adequate. The growing demand for public transport in the valley significantly outweighs the supply. While the estimated number of annual public transport passengers was 0.634 million in 2009, this figure is projected to rise to 3.275 million by 2034, with an annual increase rate of 6.78%. Meanwhile, the number of public vehicles has only increased by 2%, failing to meet the escalating demand.

Fig 4: Population projection of National And Kathmandu Valley. Source

There is a striking imbalance between the number of public vehicles and the passengers relying on them. Although 12.33% of travelers use two-wheelers, these vehicles account for a staggering 79.1% of the total vehicle fleet. Moreover, the number of two-wheelers increased by 81% in 2018, while the growth of public transport vehicles remained stagnant at just 2%. This imbalance further exacerbates the strain on Kathmandu’s public transport system, leaving many commuters with no reliable alternatives.

Fig 5: Source: Number of registered vehicles in Bagmati zone (2019/20) (Department of Transport Management 2020) 

Delays are another severe issue associated with traffic congestion. Research on the Kathmandu-Bhaktapur route found an average delay of 20 minutes per trip by a vehicle, resulting in 9,133 passenger hours lost daily. On the Maitighat-Tinkune route, similar research revealed a daily loss of 6465.90 hours during peak times. 

Traffic congestion also leads to increased vehicle emissions due to lower average speeds, more frequent stops and starts, and higher power acceleration. A study found a 200% increase in vehicle emissions during rush hours. Traffic congestion can lead to premature mortality rates associated with emissions such as O3 and PM2.5. Kathmandu’s average PM2.5 pollution levels were over 100 µg/m³, exceeding over 6.5 times than WHO limit for a single day.

Data suggests that 40% of the total area of Kathmandu Valley is set to be a built-up area until 2030. It is a considerable increase from the 24% built-up area of the valley in 2011. This rapid urbanization, coupled with the growing number of two-wheelers, highlights the need for proper traffic management infrastructure, such as functional traffic lights and zebra crossings. Currently, many of Kathmandu’s traffic lights are non-operational, and only about 365 zebra crossings are available for public use, which is insufficient to ensure pedestrian safety, leading to increased risks and further complicating traffic flow in an already congested city.

The unreliability and inefficiencies of public transport in the valley can be backed up by several evidences. According to research, 57.7% of public-vehicle passengers were unhappy with travel times, 30.5% had to wait over 10 minutes for a ride during the morning rush, and 69.1% perceived drivers as reckless. The paper also suggested that the absence of a proper ticketing system, time schedules, interconnections, and designated bus stations further added to the system's unreliability. Many core areas of the valley can be accessed within 15-30 minutes, but peripheral areas may require 2 hours or more due to inadequate connections.  A report by an urban planner identified that the issues with public transport in the valley were due to the duplication of routes by multiple uncoordinated operators, weak regulation, and an oversupply of vehicles on some routes.

With 80% of public vehicle operations in Kathmandu Valley under the control of private companies, these companies influence fare pricing, making it challenging to enter the market. The fare for public transport in Kathmandu is relatively high, with the affordability index (the percentage of monthly income spent on public transportation) 14.13%, much higher than cities like Bangkok (1%) and London (2%). 

The set number of bus stands for public transport vehicles in Kathmandu is nominal and is changed daily along with the departure times of the vehicles. When efforts to challenge the system and the hegemony are made, such progress arouses instability, with major service providers suspending their services. 6 of the Mayur Yatayat buses were vandalized when they first started operation in 2018. Such incidents increase hostility in the public transportation economy.

Proposed Solution: Why a Metro System is Crucial for Kathmandu

Introducing a metro train system integrated with digital solutions could be a promising way to revamp Kathmandu Valley’s public transportation system. A metro (Metropolitan railway) is a high-capacity Mass Rapid Transit(MRT) system that operates on either an overhead platform or an underground track. The feasibility study from the Investment Board in 2012 found metro rail to be feasible inside Kathmandu Valley. In 2017, JICA, based on experience in other Asian megacities, suggested that the MRT system would be appropriate for construction in Kathmandu Valley between 2020 and 2030. With the rising population, projected growth, feasibility studies, and international recommendations, the Kathmandu Valley urgently needs to embrace the metro system.  The adoption of a metro system could significantly revolutionize the valley’s public transportation and economy. Below are some ways in which it would address the aforementioned challenges and provide substantial benefits:

Addressing Overcrowding through MRT

The capacity of metro trains is significantly higher compared to that of buses and minibuses in Kathmandu. A 6-car metro in Ahmedabad carries 1626 passengers traveling in one direction. Similarly, an eight-coach train in Delhi can accommodate 800-1,000 passengers by allowing standing passengers while maintaining social distancing. This denotes that the implementation of the metro system can be a significant success in addressing the problem of overcrowding in public vehicles in the valley. In highly populated Kathmandu, the metro system will be able to cater to the high demand systematically. 

Reduced Congestion and Public Vehicle Shift

Studies have shown that a metro rail system encourages people to shift from private vehicles to public transportation. A study conducted on a Kathmandu route revealed that 68% of the 200 respondents were willing to shift to the metro. This shift would significantly reduce congestion and overall vehicle density, allowing minibusses and microbuses to operate more efficiently, alleviating strain on the entire public transport system.

Reliability and Reduced delays

Metro trains operate on fixed routes without obstructions and adhere to strict schedules, making them a reliable mode of mass transit. The problem of delays and capital hour lost can be pulled down to negligible value, allowing people to use the saved time for productive activities, which can, in turn, contribute to economic growth.

Environmental and Economic Benefits of Metro Implementation

Nepal’s electricity generation capacity reached 3,157 MW in 2022/23, with energy production now exceeding domestic requirements. The government has set an ambitious 12-year plan to further expand energy production, aiming to generate over 28,000 MW by 2035.This increased supply has driven electricity costs down, with tariffs decreasing by 25%  over the past eight years. Electrically powered metro trains can serve as the cheapest and most sustainable mode of transport by reducing fuel consumption, decreasing air and noise pollution, and improving the overall quality of life. The operation cost decreases, making transportation affordable in addition to the reduction in carbon emission, making Kathmandu cleaner with a strong decline in pollution-related diseases.

Syndicates and Private Monopolies: How Metro Could Disrupt the Status Quo

Due to the large financing required, a metro system would be managed either by the government or through public-private partnerships with strict regulation. This structure could break the current dominance of private-sector oligopolies, ensuring that services are more equitable and affordable for the public.

Digitization and Efficiency in Public Transport

Metro system provides more reliability and flexibility in integrating a digital fare collection system. Digitalization can address the issues of inaccurate fare collection and revenue leakage, reducing tax evasion and counterfeit money. Smart cards and e-wallets like Esewa and Fone Pay can be used as fare collection means.  This would make fare collection more convenient for both passengers and operators. Launching a metro app that provides real-time updates on schedules, delays, fares, and routes would be extremely helpful to ensure accountability in the service. 

Economic and Social Benefits

By offering a safe, reliable, and economical mode of transport, a metro system would enhance the quality of life in Kathmandu, improve the city’s appeal to tourists, and support economic activities. The construction and operation of metro infrastructure would create employment opportunities and foster technological advancement. If combined with a strong digital infrastructure, the future of Kathmandu’s public transport system looks promising.

Challenges of Introducing the Metro System 

While the metro system offers many potential benefits, it comes with its own set of challenges. The high initial cost, concerns about seismic impacts, and potential disruption during the long construction period make it a highly ambitious project. Moreover, an overhead metro requires wider roads, which is not feasible in many parts of the valley.

The financial viability of the metro is also uncertain. Even the metro system in New Delhi, which serves a much larger population, is currently operating at a loss. This raises concerns about returns on investment in Kathmandu. A feasibility study conducted by the Investment Board and the Department of Railways estimated that $5,471.72 million would be required to establish a metro across five routes in Kathmandu Valley. The study suggested a Public-Private Partnership (PPP) model, but concerns remain about whether the government has enough funds or if private contractors would find the project profitable.

Fig 6: Kathmandu Valley Metro feasibility study on five routes by investment board (Source: The Annapurna Express) 

In 2021, a Chinese consultant was assigned to prepare a Detailed Project Report (DPR) for Line 4 (Satdobato-Ratnapark-Maharajung), which was not completed due to problems that arose in the initial phase. Officials, including Lalitpur Metropolitan’s city office, argued that the project would negatively impact the beauty and cultural significance of the valley. Until now, no significant progress has been reported. This points to another challenge—securing local support. Road expansions in Kathmandu have always been controversial due to their potential impact on culturally rich areas and architectural heritage.

The Future of Public Transport in Kathmandu: Metro and Beyond

Given the opportunities and challenges in launching a metro line in the valley, careful consideration must be given to the choice of routes. While constructing an extensive metro system may have limitations, it could first be tested on the existing Ring Road, which spans 27 km and has a 62-meter Right of Way (ROW). This route would be ideal, as it connects with subsidiary roads across the three districts within the valley. Additionally, the proposed 72 km Outer Ring Road (ORR) could accommodate a metro line as part of its development, providing further connectivity.

Fig 7: Current and Proposed Ring Roads (Source: The Himalayan Times )

Encouraging Public-Private Partnerships (PPP) will help bring in the necessary finance for this large-scale infrastructure project. Other financing models, such as Build-Own-Operate-Transfer (BOOT) or Build-Operate-Transfer (BOT), could attract private companies to invest. Additionally, introducing trams on wider roads, such as the Ring Road and the Maitighar-Tinkune route, could be an alternative to the metro due to its flexibility and relatively lower infrastructure costs.

Attracting passengers to public transport by strengthening the existing system is an urgent necessity in the short term. A veteran journalist and the current chairperson of Sajha Yatayat highlighted the importance of attracting users to public transport with his blueprint ideas, including introducing large electric vehicles, implementing route rationalization, and adopting digital fare collection systems. 

Regardless of the chosen solution, the success of any public transport revamp will rely on meticulous planning and efficient execution. Strong coordination between all three levels of government, as well as collaboration with relevant stakeholders, will be crucial to ensure the project's long-term viability and success.

Conclusion: The Urgency of Urban Mobility Reform in Kathmandu

The urgent need to revamp Kathmandu’s public transportation system can be addressed through an electrically powered metro system with Mass Rapid Transit capabilities. An MRT system could potentially resolve the city's chronic issues of congestion, delays, and pollution while providing an affordable and sustainable alternative. However, this path is not without challenges—high costs, uncertain financial returns, lengthy construction periods, and potential political and public resistance are significant hurdles.

While there is immense potential of transformation, it will need more than lofty ideas and promises. The success will need bold decisions, strategic funding, and solid collaboration from every stakeholder. The real challenge will be moving beyond discussions to bring the metro to life, setting an ideal example for other developing cities. For cities like Kathmandu, the time to plan for infrastructure and public transport is running out. The future of urban mobility demands immediate action, and the metro system is a crucial part of that future.