Nepal's diverse topography and social vulnerabilities make it especially prone to geological and climate-related disasters. Nepal is the 4th most severely impacted country by climate change. It is also ranked 11th for earthquake risk and 30th for flood risk globally. Due to the consequences of climate change, the ADB suggests that Nepal could lose 2.2% of its annual GDP by the year 2050. With an estimated 117,677 people affected by floods alone in the year 2020, the country has had a history of falling victim to nature’s most violent extremes. The 2015 earthquake affected 5,642,150 people and in the following year in 2016, more than 20,000 people were affected by floods. The number of people affected by floods skyrocketed in the year 2017 with a total of 1,706,134 which was a record high since 1981. Amongst the major types of natural disasters that occur in Nepal, floods have been the most prominent one. Statistics from the Climate Change Knowledge Portal of the World Bank show that from 1990-2020, floods accounted for 40% of annual natural hazard occurrences as illustrated in Figure 1.

Figure 1: Average annual natural hazard occurrence in Nepal (1990-2020)

Source: The World Bank

Floods in Nepal

The monsoon rain not only carries casualties and disasters across Nepal but is undoubtedly a crucial aid for the agriculture sector which covers 24% of Nepal’s GDP. The monsoon season starts with increased precipitation towards the end of June. The following months receive sustained rainfall which continues until September as shown in Figure 2. The Average monthly rainfall goes to more than 3000 millimetres in central and northern areas of the country resulting in floods. Among the various types of floods, the major ones include fluvial floods (river-induced due to heavy rainfall), Glacial Lake Outburst Floods, landslide-induced flooding, and infrastructural flooding (such as embankment failure). The principal and most destructive type of flooding occurs from rivers (fluvial) in the Terai region. Much of the flooding occurs due to four main reasons; topography, climate change, increasing deforestation and unplanned settlements near river basins. 

 Figure 2: Average monthly temperature and rainfall in Nepal (1991–2020) 

Source: The World Bank

Nepal's most abundant natural resources are water and forests, with freshwater from glaciers, snowmelt, and rainfall making up about 2.27% of the global supply. With more than 6000 rivers and rivulets running from north to south of the country, there is nevertheless an increase in potential flooding impact not just in Nepal but in the majority of Asian countries owing to climate change and an increase in global temperature. The annual average temperature of Nepal has increased by 0.056 degrees Celsius during 1974-2014 AD. This has resulted in the exponential melting of glaciers and freshwater sources in the mountainous regions giving rise to increased and sometimes even uncontrolled river flows. The rise in river flows is so precarious that what was historically a 1-in-100-year event is now projected to occur every 50 or even 25 years in Nepal.

Official notice issued by Flood Forecasting Division, Department of Hydrology and Meteorology, Ministry of Energy, Water Resources and Irrigation, Government of Nepal on July 5 2024:

Emergency Events Database EM-DAT shows that from 2000 to 2023, floods in Nepal affected 4,221,962 people, resulting in 3,270 deaths and 1,353 injuries. On average, that is 140 deaths annually. ADB’s Consultant Report of 2019 suggests that on average, Nepal loses USD 140 Million due to floods. Governmental data suggests that over the past decade from 2013-2024 (2071 Baisakh to 2080 Chaitra), Nepal recorded 1,602 floods, 2,840 landslides, and 1,597 instances of heavy rain during the monsoon season. These events resulted in 3,052 deaths, 791 missing persons, and 4,176 injuries. Additionally, 16,054 homes were completely destroyed, and 46,069 homes were partially damaged.

The Monsoon Preparedness and Response Plan, 2081 (2024) (hereinafter ‘MPRP’) published by the National Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Authority (hereinafter ‘NDRRM’) on June 7, 2024, stipulates that in the monsoon of 2078 alone, 52 hydropower projects were damaged, including the Melamchi water supply project, which suffered a loss of two billion rupees. The country also incurred losses for 27 small and large hydropower projects, 26 suspension bridges, and 15 fixed bridges in the districts of Sankhuwasabha, Taplejung, and Panchthar due to sudden floods.

Nepal’s Flood Preparedness

The MPRP provides that there were 1,427 deaths caused in the past 5 years during monsoon season leading to losses amounting to NPR 5 Arab 91 Crores. According to the Nepal Disaster Risk Reduction Portal, in the year 2023, 370 families were affected due to floods and 6 people lost their lives. According to the Ministry of Forests and Environment, Sunsari, Kailai, Morang and Jhapa are the most prone to floods and are characterized by very high risk as shown in Table 1 below. 

Table 1: Nepal districts ranked according to the flood hazard index (2021). 

Source Ministry of Forests and Environment 2021

The MPRP has projected that this year’s monsoon season will affect 412,209 households where 83,000 households are estimated to be affected more from which 20% (approximately 16,600) households are thought to require immediate humanitarian assistance and food supplies. 

In this pretext, Nepal has nevertheless made gradual progress in disaster preparedness and risk management, particularly in drafting legislation and forming policy, starting in 2017 and 2018. Although a National Disaster Response Framework was in place in 2013, alongside the Natural Calamities Act 1982, the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Act, 2017 (hereinafter ‘DRRM’) in particular marked an important breakthrough in this regard after which the National Policy on Disaster Risk Reduction, 2018 was formulated. Subsequently, Disaster Risk Reduction National Strategic Plan of Action (2018-2030) was also introduced.

The DRRM 2017 specifically is important in terms of disaster preparedness and disaster management in Nepal. It forms disaster management committees at the Provincial, District and Municipal levels. It also creates the Disaster Risk Reduction and Management Council as the apex policy-making body in the country which is chaired by the Prime Minister at the federal level and Chief Minister at the Province. At the local level, the disaster management committees are chaired by the Mayor or chairperson of the local level. The Act establishes and recognizes the NDRRM as the specialized agency to look after disaster risk management. The Act has also made ‘Disaster Management Fund Operating Procedure 2022’ to manage and administer funds whilst utilising them for disaster relief and response purposes. 

Apart from legal and policy measures, Nepal’s infrastructure landscape has also seen major updates for disaster readiness and risk mitigation. From FY 2021/22 to mid-March of FY 2022/23, President Chure-Terai Conservation Program implemented flood, dike, and embankment control measures at 48 locations. In FY 2021/22, riverbank stabilization and management were completed along 29.6 km of 48 main river systems in 37 districts, alongside 173 flood and embankment control projects. By mid-March of FY 2023, a total of 1,312.40 km of embankments had been constructed for flood control, and 12,559 hectares of land had been reclaimed. In FY 2022/23 up to mid-March, 24.16 km of embankments and 7 hectares of reclaimed land have been achieved. In FY 2022/23, 79.24 km of embankments were constructed, and 547.3 hectares of land were reclaimed. Furthermore, the MPRP highlights that as per the National Disaster Response Framework 2070 (2024) all three security agencies viz, Nepal Army, Nepal Police and Armed Police Forces alongside their engineers, air and medical service officials including rescue groups equalling 29,540 people were readily available with necessary training and resources. It also states that Kathmandu including all the seven provinces had Human Support Agencies (HSA) with provincial warehouses, Nepal Red Cross Society’s central and regional warehouses and logistics bases of security forces. In addition to this, MPRP suggests that there are a total of 202,087 quantities of disaster relief materials in the warehouses of the Ministries of federal and provincial government, Agencies of the United Nations, Save the Children, and Nepal Red Cross Society.

The missing loop in Nepal’s disaster preparedness

The NDRRM’s recent initiative of publishing MPRP is truly commendable and shows that the government has taken due diligence on the vulnerability of thousands of people who are prone to the consequences of impending floods this monsoon season. However, statistics from climate expert Dr Dharma Upreti raise concerns about whether these measures will effectively mitigate the severe outcomes of floods or prove to be yet another ineffective effort amidst mass casualties. Dr Dharma Upreti noted that despite below-average rainfall observed during the first month of the monsoon season, from 10 June till July 4, 2024, there were 47 deaths and economic losses totalling NPR 8 crores 20 lakhs (~USD 600,000) due to rainfall-induced natural disasters like flood and landslides. This alarming number calls for a more robust disaster response plan and management in Nepal. 

One of many hurdles that have ultimately turned out to be a bottleneck for disaster preparedness in Nepal is the lack of coherence within the three levels of government and confusion on the jurisdiction of entities. These challenges, along with the lack of timely meetings of local disaster management committees and generic budget plans that don't address specific local needs, have significantly hampered disaster preparedness in Nepal. During an interaction program on disaster management and environmental protection organised on 14th June 2024 by the District Coordination Committee, Chitwan, municipal chiefs expressed their concerns that not being able to fully utilize local resources has been causing problems in disaster management. The Mayor of Ratnanagar Municipality noted that while the municipality duly wanted to make an embankment alongside river banks, it had to go through multiple processes with different entities just to get permission for the initiation of the project which tends to delay the entire work unnecessarily. Similarly, the Mayor of Khairhani municipality stressed that his municipality is prone to forest fires, floods, and windstorms while emphasising the need to clarify jurisdictional responsibilities to effectively address these problems.

An investigation committee formed to prepare a report on casualties during heavy rainfall and disasters from 13-20 August 2018 at Aathabis Municipality, Rukum (West) showed that the resources including food, shelter and other logistics were not enough to address the demands. Additionally, it also highlighted that road networks are largely hit during rainfall seasons which disrupts rescue and repositioning of survivors. Likewise, it focused on bringing an integrated settlement development program with a cost of more than NPR 2 Crores with the initiative of the state government and the federal government keeping disaster-affected households at the centre. The above instances clearly show that efforts for disaster readiness and risk management still need additional resources, infrastructure management and proper coordination amongst tiers and levels of the government.

Conclusion

For this, the incorporation of a few crucial measures could significantly enhance flood risk mitigation and management. Among many, proper implementation of risk insurance and financing is a major tool which could potentially save and reduce the government’s expenditure in terms of disaster response and recovery. UNDP’s recent launch of Insurance and Risk Finance as a part of its global Insurance and Risk Finance Facility (IRFF) alongside the National Disaster Risk Financing Strategy, 2020 are in place to ensure that the losses incurred by the people and the state are restored. The UNDP’s initiative “seeks to prioritize financial resilience by tapping into the benefits of insurance and risk financing mechanisms”, while the latter Strategy of 2020 released by the NDRRM critically focuses on the post-disaster resilience of persons. The Strategy provides that under the Disaster Victim Rescue and Relief Standards, 2007 (Sixth Amendment 2017), the families of victims who die owing to disasters would receive NPR 2,00,000/- and households unable to maintain daily livelihoods due to housing and food supply damage following a disaster will receive immediate relief of Rs. 15-20,000. Families displaced by complete house damage are entitled to Rs. 50,000 and can apply to the Central Disaster Management Committee for additional relief if needed. Additionally, disaster victims will receive free treatment in government hospitals under this standard as well. Concrete implementation of these schemes would ultimately reduce casualties and ensure proper restitution for affected individuals.

Furthermore, the government should also employ modern technologies to mitigate the risks of natural disasters like floods. The use of cutting-edge flagship technologies like the use of drones in Gambia for instance has been reported to effectively and rapidly map flooding and make identification of risk areas as swift as possible. This also allows for a steadfast planning of evacuation routes before disaster strikes. 

Above all, one of the ultimate tools that the government should use as a measure for disaster management and risk mitigation is awareness of climate change and proper settlement planning near river basins. The capacity-building programs and awareness initiatives should be carried out at the grassroots level to foster the importance of planting more trees and eradicating deforestation. As Nepal plans to become a carbon-neutral country by 2045, the use of environment-degrading products, and equipment should be discouraged and subjected to strict regulations. Since the root cause of natural disasters lies in climate change, the government should also focus on negotiating carbon trading deals with developed nations and companies that are responsible for the majority of global emissions and utilise these funds to empower and build communities that are prone to the risk of natural calamities. These resources should be equally utilised for critical settlement planning in vulnerable areas.